AUSTRALIA is forecast to harvest a larger winter grain crop this year, with Rabobank estimating total volumes to reach 62.8 million tonnes in its just-released annual 2025-2026 Australian winter crop forecast.

RaboResearch division forecasts total winter grain and oilseeds production to come in approximately 3.8 million tonnes above last season, an increase of 6.4 per cent – and 6.1 per cent above the five-year average.

Senior grains and oilseeds analyst, Vitor Pistoia, says this growth outlook is underpinned by above-average rainfall received across a number of key grain-producing regions through the season, most notably in Western Australia and northern New South Wales.

Positive soil-moisture levels in northern New South Wales and Queensland have again supported strong yields this year, and recovery from drought conditions in parts of South Australia will also contribute to larger national grain volumes.

Mr Pistoia said Western Australia may be on track to record its second-largest crop on record.

He said increased tonnage this harvest will largely be driven by improved wheat and canola yields, as well as a significant rise in area cropped to barley.

However, the report cautions, Australia’s crop farmers face a less optimistic outlook when it comes to prices, with global grain supply surging and placing downward price pressure on the market.

“Australian grain exports face intense competition as global production remains at high levels, especially for wheat and barley,” Mr Pistoia said.

“Large harvests in Russia, the EU and the US have weighed on global markets, while carryover stocks continue to build in major exporting nations, such as Canada and here in Australia.”

Locally, the combination of a sizeable new winter crop and a large carryover crop from last season is expected to “limit upside potential for wheat prices”.

“In such a well-supplied market, Australian wheat prices have limited room to go against the global trend,” the report says.

Commodities

Australia’s wheat production is forecast to be 0.6 per cent up on last season to 34.1 million tonnes, according to the report, and also up 0.6 per cent on the five-year average.

Barley production is expected to increase 14 per cent on last season, to 14.9 million tonnes, yields allowing. This would be about nine per cent above the five-year average and drive this year’s barley crop to record levels.

Mr Pistoia said with a potential record-high barley crop this season, the pace of exports will be crucial in shaping market dynamics.

“Globally, barley faces structurally muted demand growth from the malt industry, driven by shifting trends in alcohol consumption, while a record-high global corn crop means the global animal feed market is also well supplied,” he said.

Domestically, Mr Pistoia said demand for barley is anticipated should remain firm, supported by the cattle and sheep sectors, which should help to buffer the impact of an abundant global corn supply on feed grain markets.

For canola, this season’s production is expected to expand by almost 10 per cent to approximately 6.5 million tonnes, or 2.3 per cent above the five-year average.

Mr Pistoia said Australian canola exports – non-GM – to the EU may soften compared with last season, due to a recovery in Europe’s own production.

However, the EU is expected to replenish its stocks, which could potentially bring price stability into the second quarter next year.

There may also be resurgence in Chinese demand for Australian canola in 2026 following the tariffs it implemented on Canadian canola, potentially improving prospects for Australian GM canola.

For pulses, production is predicted to expand by 16 per cent year-on-year this harvest to 5.7 million tonnes, which would be an “impressive” 49 per cent above the five-year average.

The report says Australian chickpea production alone is likely to surpass 1.8 million tonnes.

While this is down almost 20 per cent from last year’s record, it would still be the third-largest crop on record.

Lentils are forecast to rise 73 per cent on last year, lupins 43 per cent and faba beans 18 per cent.

However, other key global producers, such as Canada and Russia, are also expected to have large crops and the strong global supply of pulses is weighing on prices.

Overall, winter crop production is forecast to increase in Western Australia and rebound in both South Australia and Victoria, where challenging drought conditions had seen production totals decline last harvest.

Statewide, winter grain crops in New South Wales and Queensland are expected to be down on the very strong levels seen the previous year.

Total winter crop production for Western Australia is forecast to come in at 24.6 million tonnes, up 9.5 per cent on last year’s harvest, the report says.

“This year, the season in WA behaved similarly to last year, with a late season break followed by good rainfall in most regions across the state during July and August,” Mr Pistoia said,

“Temperatures were supportive to grain filling as well, with a mild first half of September and typical heat waves starting by the end of the month.”

South Australia is seeing a much-needed production recovery, with the state’s total winter grain harvest predicted to reach 8.6 million tonnes, 67 per cent above last year’s drought-impacted total, albeit two per cent below the five-year average.

Victoria’s recovery looks set to be less impressive, although forecasts suggest the state’s total grain production this season to reach 8.8 million tonnes, up 19 per cent on last year’s depleted harvest.

Although down on last year’s record 3.8 million tonnes, Queensland is still set to “fill the bins” this harvest, with the season likely to bring a winter crop of approximately 3.5 million tonnes, which would still be one of the largest on record.

This is eight per cent down on last year, but 19 per cent above the five-year average.

For New South Wales, though forecast to be 14 per cent down on last year’s total harvest is expected to come in at a solid 17.4 million tonnes.

“As with last year, we have once again seen a production imbalance between the north and south of the state,” Mr Pistoia said.

“The northern half of the state has experienced average to positive growing conditions, while the southern regions faced sub-optimal soil moisture during September and early October. And these conditions are likely to be reflected in yield variance across the state.”