THE Bureau of Meteorology has issued its long-range forecast for winter 2025.

While winter is a time for cooler weather, the winter long-range forecast shows day and night temperatures are likely to be above-average across Australia for this time of the year.

Winter rainfall is likely to be above-average for interior and central parts of the country.

For parts of Australia’s tropical north, the south-east and the south-west, rainfall is expected to be in the typical winter range.

Typical rainfall means there’s a roughly equal possibility for these areas to receive above, below or near-average rainfall.

This includes parts of South Australia, Victoria and Tasmania that have been affected by prolonged dry conditions as well as parts of New South Wales recently impacted by severe flooding.

This winter forecast follows an autumn which was much wetter than average in the north and east of Australia, and much drier than average in many southern parts.

Australia’s fire agencies advise there is an unseasonal increased risk of fire this winter across parts of South Australia and Victoria.

2025 winter long-range forecast

New South Wales and the ACT

Winter rainfall is expected to be above average for much of the state and the ACT.

However, parts of the state’s east are likely to have rainfall in the typical range.

Average winter rainfall in recent decades has been between 100mm and 300mm along most of eastern New South Wales, with higher falls in the alpine regions, while in western and central New South Wales winter averages are between 25mm and 100mm.

Warmer than usual winter maximum temperatures are likely across the state, and warmer than usual winter minimum temperatures are very likely.

Victoria

Rainfall is expected to be within the typical winter range for much of the state.

Average winter rainfall in recent decades ranges between 100mm and 300mm throughout much of the state, while the state’s north-west has 50mm to 100mm and parts of the far south and alpine areas have up to 600mm on average

Warmer than usual winter maximum and minimum temperatures are very likely across the state.

Queensland

Winter rainfall is expected to be in the typical range for much of the state, with parts of the south and west likely to have above average rainfall.

Warmer than usual winter maximum and minimum temperatures are very likely across the state.

Western Australia

Winter rainfall is expected to be above average for much of the state, except for the south-west where rainfall is likely to be in the typical winter range.

Average winter rainfall in recent decades has been between 100 and 400 mm for most of the South West Land Division with up to 600mm in the far south-west, 50mm to 100mm in parts of the west, central and south-east, between 25mm and 50mm mid-state, and less than 10mm in the north.

Warmer than usual maximum and minimum winter temperatures are very likely across the state.

South Australia

Winter rainfall is likely to be above average for much of the state, except for the far south-east where rainfall is expected to be within the typical range for winter.

Average winter rainfall in recent decades has been between 50mm and 300mm across the south with some coastal parts up to 400mm, and 10mm to 50mm for the central and northern parts.

Warmer than usual winter maximum and minimum temperatures are likely across the state.

Tasmania

Winter rainfall is expected to be in the typical range for much of the state.

Warmer than usual winter maximum and minimum temperatures are very likely across the state.

Northern Territory

Winter rainfall is likely to be above average across the southern two-thirds of the Territory.

Warmer than usual June to August maximum and minimum temperatures are very likely across most of the Territory.

Autumn Preliminary Summary

Autumn has been warmer than usual for most of Australia. Throughout much of the south and west, daytime temperatures were very much above average.

Victoria had its warmest autumn on record, New South Wales had its second warmest, and South Australia and Western Australia had their third warmest autumn on record. Autumn has been drier than average across much of the country’s south and west.

Slow-moving high pressure systems to the south of the continent are contributing to drier conditions in the south. This pattern has also enhanced coastal troughs off New South Wales and southern Queensland, contributing to the recent above average coastal rainfall in these states.

Conditions have been wetter than usual for much of the east and north, with rainfall very much above average in large parts of Queensland.

Tropical activity, including Tropical Cyclone Alfred and a low pressure trough over western Queensland, brought widespread rainfall and flooding during March and April.

Autumn rainfall was very much below average in large parts of the south-east and the west coast. In Tasmania, autumn rainfall was the second lowest on record.